ISIS - what brought it into being?
As described in Professor Fawaz Gerges' recent book, ISIS - a History, the eponymous jihadist group has its origins in Al Qaeda. The two were one and the same in Iraq in the early naughties after Saddam Hussein and his Ba'ath Party were toppled by the United States. In the last few years, the two groups have grown apart as major differences in their aims and objectives have become clear. However, the real origins of ISIS stem from the dilapidated condition in which the region finds itself. Destruction of most major institutions and a persistent lack of foreign investment has left a vacuum, argues Professor Gerges, allowing competing power bases to flourish. ISIS, the notable occupant, has taken control of substantial economic resources, including around two-thirds of Syria's oil output and considerable tax revenues. Of equal importance in explaining ISIS' rise are underlying demographic patterns which place impossible pressure on already weak infrastructures. The so-called 'youth bulge' in the populations of most MENA countries is a remarkable feature. People aged 15 to 24 accounted for between 15 and 25 percent in 2005. These percentages have grown considerably since then, and some estimates suggest that as much as 40 percent of the population is made up of young people. This is in stark contrast to countries like the UK, where the median age rose from 34 in 1974 to 40 in 2014. MENA's youth bulge would be an asset if sufficient employment was available for these young adults. Sadly, the opposite is true, with youth unemployment rates of between 27 and 29 percent in 2014; twice the global average. It seems ironic that, on one hand, western countries like the UK are failing to produce enough working adults to support their ageing populations while, on the other hand, the MENA region is replete with unemployed young people. That is not to say that there is a quick fix here necessarily; clearly the political issues are significant and emphatic. But it is, at least, food for thought.